Weekly Market Recap: Tariffs, Tech, and Treasury Turbulence
Market Overview
U.S. equities rebounded with force following a volatile stretch, led by a 7.3% surge in the Nasdaq and a 7.6% jump in Russell 1000 Growth. The S&P 500 climbed 5.7%—its best week of the year—thanks to a 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs (excluding China, cooling inflation data, and robust earnings from big banks. Despite a shaky start marked by false headlines and rapid reversals, markets regained footing midweek with Wall Street posting its strongest single-day gains since 2008.
Growth stocks decisively outpaced value as investors rotated back into tech after weeks of underperformance. Consumer Staples and Utilities led among sectors year-to-date, while Consumer Discretionary and Tech continued to lag despite the weekly bounce.
Abroad, the tone was mixed. European stocks remained flat, with ECB rate cut expectations dampened despite the EU delaying counter-tariffs. U.K. equities outperformed thanks to a surprise GDP beat. In Asia, sentiment was battered by escalating tariff battles. China and Hong Kong slumped under heavy retaliatory measures, while Taiwan tech shares led broader declines across emerging markets.
Federal Reserve Insights and Economic Roundup
The March FOMC minutes underscored the Fed’s growing concern over the economic drag of tariffs—mentioned 18 times in the document. While the Fed held steady at a 4.50% target rate, officials flagged tightening credit conditions, particularly for small businesses, and potential knock-on effects to economic growth even absent further trade escalation.
Bond markets saw aggressive selling as yields climbed across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield surged 45 basis points, closing at 4.47%, driven by sticky inflation, poor early-week auctions, deleveraging, and a flight out of bonds. However, late-week Treasury demand returned strongly, tempering fears of sustained illiquidity. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index finished lower, echoing broad fixed income weakness.
Commodities offered mixed signals. WTI crude spiked on inventory drawdowns but retreated as demand outlook dimmed under trade war stress. Meanwhile, gold hit record highs as investors sought safety amid rising geopolitical and inflationary risks. The U.S. dollar weakened late in the week, pressured by stronger euro and yen moves and dovish global central bank signals.
The Week Ahead
Markets will face another barrage of economic data next week, with investors watching for signs of economic resilience or softening:
Monday: NY Fed Inflation Expectations (Mar)
Tuesday: Empire Manufacturing (Apr), Import/Export Prices (Mar)
Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, MBA Mortgage Apps, Business Inventories
Thursday: Housing Starts & Building Permits (Mar), Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index
Friday: Markets closed for Good Friday
As volatility remains elevated and earnings season gains momentum, investors should brace for further market swings—particularly as inflation, tariffs, and interest rate policy continue to converge in unpredictable ways.